The Heavyweight Landscape and What to Expect in 2016 (By Harry Darell)

So it’s happened. Dr Steelhammer has officially been knocked off the perch. On 28^th November 2015 Gypsy King Tyson Fury dethroned Wladimir Klitschko, ending an eleven-year undefeated reign and busting the heavyweight scene wide open. Gone are the days when the Ukrainian brothers horded all the belts, overshadowing any alternative promise. Let’s face it – the division is making a serious comeback. 2016 is the year when the talk will stop and the truth will be revealed. How is it all going to play out?

As expected, Klitschko has triggered the rematch clause against Fury and it is likely they will fight in the first four months of 2016 (exact date unannounced). Although the decision has caused him difficulties, (as a consequence of the rematch he is unable to fight mandatory IBF challenger Vyacheslav Glazkov and has been stripped of the belt) Fury is doubly confident that he will deliver a second victory against the man he once referred to as ‘The Klit.’ Despite the bout on Nov. 28 hardly being the most entertaining in heavyweight history, one cannot belittle Fury’s achievement. Can he do it again? Klitschko turns forty in March, Fury has the advantage of a home stadium, Fury has the mental advantage of a previous triumph. Despite the protestations of Vitali Klitschko that his younger brother has more to deliver, it is my prediction that Fury will retain the belts in 2016 for the second time on a unanimous decision.  Klitschko, if he has any dignity or consideration for the game, will retire from the boxing world.

With Klitschko out of the picture, there is one obvious Fury contender for Heavyweight supremacy. Across the Atlantic, WBC world heavyweight champion Deontay ‘The Bronze Bomber’ Wilder has been very vocal about his hunger to unify the division. With an unbelievable 97.1% knockout win ratio (35-0), Wilder possesses the most power in the top contenders of the heavyweight ranks. However, it is difficult to judge Wilder’s potential against an opponent like Fury, as it is only since the start of 2015 that he has been even remotely tested. Prior opponents, with the possible exception of Malik Scott (although that is pushing it), have been ubiquitously hopeless. On 17.01.15 Wilder defeated Bermane Stiverne by unanimous decision to win the WBC heavyweight title. He followed this up with a nine round KO against Eric Molina (Molina was knocked down four times). 

Wilder’s latest victory against Johann Duhaupas was sloppy and scarce (TKO round 11). Wilder struggled to finish the job. Duhaupas was only ranked 11^th in the division and nearly made the full distance with Wilder whilst landing numerous effective punches.  2015 taught us that although the Olympic Bronze medallist can smash his way quickly through thirty fakers with brutal power, he is going to struggle to compete at the very top level. Experience and power will see Wilder through his next fight with Polish Artur Szpilka. His size advantage may scrape him a unanimous decision against Povetkin. As for taking on Fury, the Gypsy King will prevail. When Wilder cannot use sheer power, he fails to put on a convincing show. Prediction: it is more than likely that Wilder will meet Fury towards the end of 2016. Fury will win on points.  

Now let’s step out of the limelight. There’s a stir slightly lower down in the ranks as David ‘The Hayemaker’ Haye makes his return to the ring after a three and a half year absence. He will take on knockout artist Mark de Mori (33-1-2), ranked number 10 in the heavyweight division. There couldn’t have been a better selected fight for Haye and if he’s in half the shape that trainer Shane McGuigan says he’s in, it is unlikely that De Mori will go the distance. This is not to discredit the Australian who self-taught himself boxing watching YouTube videos in his garage and has racked up an impressive repertoire of KO’s. However, the fighters that will really challenge Haye are the younger up and comings. De Mori, already at 33 will have little to throw at Haye that he hasn’t seen before although he has repeatedly hinted that he will be exploiting Haye’s long-standing shoulder injury during the fight. Prediction: Haye victory, TKO rd. 10. 

Beyond this, Haye will not make a considerable impact on this division in 2016.  Although his agility and power is impressive, he simply hasn’t the size or weight to rumble fighters such as Fury, Wilder or his old arch nemesis, Klitschko (providing he sticks around after the Fury rematch). The most interesting aspect of Haye’s return is how he will fare if he takes on Anthony Joshua. Haye will be a significant test for the current Commonwealth, British and WBC international heavyweight champion as he will be able to match the power and speed combination on which Joshua relies on so heavily. Naturally, Joshua has a significant size advantage but it is unlikely that Joshua will deliver a knockout on Haye and if he does, with difficulty.

This brings us now to the real future of British boxing, Anthony ‘AJ’ Joshua (15-0). His 7^th round TKO defeat of Dillian Whyte on 12.12.15 further cemented Joshua as a future heavyweight sensation. Many seem to be claiming that although Joshua won the fight, Whyte exposed serious weaknesses. With the exception of a wobble in the second round during which Whyte turned the fight into a street brawl, the fight was one-sided, it just wasn’t as one-sided as people expected. Whyte is a strong, powerful fighter with plenty of promise but Joshua is in a different league. Joshua’s key weakness was the emotion that he let into the match, a problem that he will not encounter with any other fighter (Joshua and Whyte have been bitter rivals since Whyte defeated the former in the amateurs). 

Now Joshua can look ahead and there has been endless talk of future opponents. His next fight seems to be swaying in favour New Zealand’s Joseph Parker (17-0), a match that shouldn’t present too much difficulty. In truth it doesn’t really matter who steps up to try and stop him: Chisora, Haye, Povetkin, Ortiz, Pulev. Ultimately there is only one fighter that Joshua has his sights on: Tyson Fury. Now, it may appear naïve to think that Joshua will simply breeze his way through the ranks into a heavyweight title fight, but there is really nobody that will foreseeably stop him. Joshua will be greatly challenged on his path to Fury, but not defeated. 

Despite Eddie Hearn’s prediction that Joshua will be champion by the close of 2016, the fight is unlikely to get made until early 2017. Prediction: Fury defeats Klitschko and Wilder by unanimous decision in 2016. Joshua will defeat three of his selected opponents (probably Parker, Chisora and Haye or possibly a rematch with Whyte) before taking on Fury in 2017. When the pair meet, Joshua will have experience at being taken the full distance by one or more of his prior opponents. Joshua will beat Fury on points, unifying the heavyweight division.    

Harry Darell